Prime minister Narendra Modi, during his visit to the UAE and Bahrain, appealed to the Indian diaspora, NRIs and businessmen from both the countries to invest in Kashmir on a priority basis. He also invited them to participate in the investors’ summit to be held in Jammu & Kashmir in October this year.
Going by various indicators, it is quite likely that India may win investment from the Arab country in J&K. The positive aspects such as Modi's personal rapport with UAE crown prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed bin Nahyan; bestowing of the highest civilian honours on the Indian PM such as the UAE's Sheikh Zayed Medal and Bahrain's the King Hamad Order of Renaissance; the UAE being the third-largest trading partner of India with $60 billion and the 3.3 mn Indian community in the UAE, may work in India’s interest. Moreover, the UAE's diplomatic tilt toward India in the recent past point to new-found positive energies in the bilateral relations between the two countries.
However, the historic precedents and the ground reality in J&K present a different picture.
The Arab countries' muted response to India’s move to abrogate Article 370 and 35 (A) can be seen in the backdrop of millions of Indians working there and India being a major oil importer. Gulf countries cannot afford to harm their own commercial interests.
Looking at the worsening state of Indian economy, rapid outflow of foreign investment, the attempt to attract FDI in J&K will have to face some hurdles. Investors will be wary of investing in a region, where the army has a massive presence and the citizens are almost imprisoned. Though it can be argued that this situation would not prevail forever, J&K has limitations when it comes to the kind of industry that can be established there.
Modi has pointed out to the potential investors from the Gulf countries that J&K's strong points are its tourism, herbal and organic products, which can be marketed globally. However, J&K has little to offer due to its geographical and natural resource limitations.
Given this scenario, is it not premature on Modi’s part to invite investors when tourism is in the doldrums? Investors always prefer to invest in peaceful areas. Without the support from the local populace, no investment can be worthwhile.
India has cultural and commercial ties with the Arabs from the pre-Islamic times. Valuable knowledge that Indian scholars developed initially travelled to Europe through the Arab travellers and tradesmen.
Mohammad Qasim attacked Sindh not to spread the religion but to free seaports and control trade routes connecting India. It was Chandrapida of Karkotaka dynasty, who restricted Qasim beyond Jalandhar, the then boundary of Kashmir. His successor Lalitaditya the Great not only defeated Arab governor Junaid but forced his successor Tamim to flee, uprooting the Arab presence from the North-West.
The history of Kashmir-Arab relationship has not been very cordial. In not-so-distant-past, the people of Kashmir in the last century felt threatened when some Arabs started marrying poor Kashmiri girls to buy houseboats and properties, thereby boosting their rates to phenomenal levels. This was not only shared by some authentic sources but has also been reported in the media. However, the gravity of the matter was neglected.
Now, this fear of Arab takeover in the Kashmiri mind may grow as purchasing land and property has now become official with the abrogation of Article 35 (A), which was a psychological and a legal shield for the Kashmiri people.
Even though we neglect what locals feel or how they react, a major shift in the local socio-economical dynamics is inevitable. Kashmir has been a major tourist destination with little scope for other industries, except agricultural, light engineering industry and education.
Social activists such as Sanjay Nahar of NGO Sarhad have already taken the lead in making Kashmir a knowledge centre once again. It was a knowledge hub from the sixth to 12th century. The Arabs might look at it as the world’s most wonderful place, where they can build plush palaces and hotels. They are anyway not famous for agriculture or other industries suitable to the character of Kashmir.
Moreover, the Kashmiri people have always been rebellious, which is a proven fact. Unless peace is restored in an amicable manner with the consent of both sides, none other than land-hungry investors will turn to Kashmir for investment. This will not ensure wellbeing of the Kashmiri people.
This means either the Prime Minister's call for investment in J&K to Arab countries is just a ploy. If it comes true in the future, then the Kashmiris will feel alarmed. We must see to it that the social cohesion in Kashmir is not disturbed.
And to add to the mockery of Kashmiris, publicity-hungry Maharashtra government has announced its intention to purchase land in J&K and Laddakh to set up resorts. Huge amount of mere Rs. 1 crore is earmarked for this project. The state government has become laughing stock with this announcement as already all these three parts of the former state already have excess capacity to cater to the tourists. The history is occupancy rate has never crossed 70% even in the peak seasons and when situation was right. Today tourism in Kashmir has nosedived to zero percent. What will be the future is yet uncertain to decide. Tourists have already started changing their destinations. Another thing is that the hotspot tourist destinations like Pehalgaon, Gulmarg, Somarg has no space to allot as already land is leased to other hospitality professionals. If the Maharashtra government was so keen on improving tourism in Kashmir, it would have taken initiative in a different way long ago when it needed badly. Insensitive Maharashtra government, unfortunately, eying the land of Kashmir and not the people. This also is another ploy, like Modi, of Maharashtra government.
